Colorado Rapids II 2–2 Vancouver Whitecaps II

Colorado Rapids II

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Vancouver Whitecaps II

M. Harris 120+10' (pen)

O. Gómez 120+4' (pen)

A. Markanich 120+2' (pen)

D. Toure 29' (pen), 3'

F. Linder 120+9' (pen)

G. Aguilar 120+6' (pen)

E. Ongaro 20', 11'

7/25/2022

MLS Next Pro · Round 18Metropolitan State University of Denver Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Colorado Rapids II49%

×Draw22%

Vancouver Whitecaps II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado Rapids IIExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.53

Colorado Rapids II

2.01

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.53

Colorado Rapids II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 48 away

1.75

creates per match

1.44

1.62

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Colorado Rapids II

1.75

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.44

allows per match

Colorado Rapids II

1.62

Vancouver Whitecaps II

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids II ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids II or draw

70%

Colorado Rapids II or Vancouver Whitecaps II

78%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II

51%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+

28%

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals

87%

Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals

59%

Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals

32%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals

78%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals

45%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)

62%

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.62 · 53 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.75 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.01

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + Colorado Rapids II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colorado Rapids II scores more

49%

level

22%

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more

30%

Colorado Rapids II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colorado Rapids II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

11'

13'

20'

29'

D. TourePenalty

34'

M. Campagna

35'

D. Yapi

35'

S. Becher

36'

R. Aguirre Ortega

43'

C. Campagna

46'

N. Salihamidžić← T. Bah

50'

A. Rodriguez

63'

F. Rakic← A. Ahmed

71'

E. Brienza← J. Herdman

80'

P. Mayaka

82'

M. Swett← D. Toure

84'

T. Collomb← L. Fernandez-Salvador

86'

M. Harris← D. Yapi

90+3'

M. Harris

120+1'

S. BecherMissed penalty

120+2'

A. MarkanichPenalty

120+3'

E. BrienzaMissed penalty

120+4'

O. GómezPenalty

120+5'

Y. HanyaMissed penalty

120+6'

G. AguilarPenalty

120+7'

N. SalihamidžićMissed penalty

120+8'

D. AmadouMissed penalty

120+9'

F. LinderPenalty

120+10'

M. HarrisPenalty

Colorado

Vancouver

1

Hasal

64

Campagna

83

⚽

Linder

57

▼

Bah

66

⚽

Aguilar

47

▼

Fernandez

61

Campagna

92

▼

Herdman

51

A

▼

Ahmed

29

Becher

43

⚽2

Ongaro

28

Rodriguez

46

Malone

42

⚽

Gómez

54

Garcia

31

⚽

45

16

60

47

A

Hanya

37

⚽2

▼

Toure

77

▼

Yapi

Manager: E. Bushey

82'▲M. Swett←▼D. Toure

86'▲M. Harris←▼D. Yapi

Colorado Rapids II substitutes

57Swett44Harris53Flores56Miller87Chavarria80Sullivan85Hardin51Beaudry34Edwards

Manager: N. Dasovic

46'▲N. Salihamidžić←▼T. Bah

63'▲F. Rakic←▼A. Ahmed

71'▲E. Brienza←▼J. Herdman

84'▲T. Collomb←▼L. Fernandez-Salvador

Vancouver Whitecaps II substitutes

41Salihamidžić46Rakic49Brienza48Collomb44Lee50Anchor53Masi