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Colorado ISA vs New Mexico United II — USL League Two 2018

Colorado ISA
Colorado ISA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
New Mexico United II
New Mexico United II
7/7/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 62EchoPark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Colorado ISA16%
×Draw17%
New Mexico United II67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado ISA
1.16
New Mexico United II
2.55

New Mexico United II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

creates per match

Colorado ISA
0.76
New Mexico United II
1.72

allows per match

Colorado ISA
3.38
New Mexico United II
1.56

finishing

Colorado ISA+0.00on par
New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado ISA ↓

New Mexico United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Colorado ISA or draw
33%
Colorado ISA or New Mexico United II
83%
Draw or New Mexico United II
84%

Winning margin

Colorado ISA wins by 2+
6%
New Mexico United II wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Colorado ISA 1+ goals
69%
Colorado ISA 2+ goals
32%
Colorado ISA 3+ goals
11%
New Mexico United II 1+ goals
92%
New Mexico United II 2+ goals
72%
New Mexico United II 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Colorado ISA (draw refunded)
19%
New Mexico United II (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado ISA at home — creates 0.76, concedes 3.38 · 29 matches

New Mexico United II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado ISA attack 0.76 + New Mexico United II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

New Mexico United II attack 1.72 + Colorado ISA defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Colorado ISA scores more
16%
level
17%
New Mexico United II scores more
67%

New Mexico United II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "New Mexico United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado ISA vs New Mexico United II

New Mexico United II beat Colorado ISA 1-0 in USL League Two on July 7, 2022.

The match was played at EchoPark Stadium in Parker, Colorado.