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Colombe vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
0 – 0
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
3/11/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 28Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Colombe46%
×Draw29%
Stade Renard25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.24
Stade Renard
0.83

Colombe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 96 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
75%
Colombe or Stade Renard
71%
Draw or Stade Renard
54%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
21%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
71%
Colombe 2+ goals
35%
Colombe 3+ goals
13%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
56%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
20%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
65%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.24

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colombe scores more
46%
level
29%
Stade Renard scores more
25%

Colombe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colombe vs Stade Renard

Colombe and Stade Renard drew 0-0 in Elite One on March 11, 2020.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo in Mbankomo.