Colombe 2–1 Dynamo de Douala: Result & Stats

Colombe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dynamo de Douala

2/21/2024

Elite One · Round 15Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Colombe41%

×Draw28%

Dynamo de Douala31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColombeExpected goals in this matchDynamo de Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Colombe

1.27

Dynamo de Douala

1.06

Colombe creates 20% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

1.41

creates per match

1.34

0.78

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Colombe

1.41

Dynamo de Douala

1.34

allows per match

Colombe

0.78

Dynamo de Douala

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Dynamo de Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Colombe or draw

69%

Colombe or Dynamo de Douala

72%

Draw or Dynamo de Douala

59%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+

18%

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals

72%

Colombe 2+ goals

36%

Colombe 3+ goals

14%

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals

65%

Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals

29%

Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)

57%

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colombe scores more

41%

level

28%

Dynamo de Douala scores more

31%

Colombe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff