Colombe 3–0 Aigle Royal: Result & Stats | Elite One

Colombe

FT

3 – 0

Aigle Royal

10/16/2022

Elite One · Round 1Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Colombe51%

×Draw27%

Aigle Royal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColombeExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.82

Colombe

1.42

Aigle Royal

0.82

Colombe creates 73% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

1.41

creates per match

0.87

0.78

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Colombe

1.41

Aigle Royal

0.87

allows per match

Colombe

0.78

Aigle Royal

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Aigle Royal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Colombe or draw

78%

Colombe or Aigle Royal

73%

Draw or Aigle Royal

49%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+

25%

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals

76%

Colombe 2+ goals

41%

Colombe 3+ goals

17%

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

56%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

20%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)

70%

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Colombe scores more

51%

level

27%

Aigle Royal scores more

22%

Colombe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff