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Collerense vs Mallorca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
CANC
00:00
Mallorca II
Mallorca II
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 32Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Collerense23%
×Draw25%
Mallorca II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
0.99
Mallorca II
1.64

Mallorca II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 80 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
Mallorca II
1.96

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
Mallorca II
0.72

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Mallorca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
47%
Collerense or Mallorca II
75%
Draw or Mallorca II
77%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
8%
Mallorca II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
63%
Collerense 2+ goals
26%
Collerense 3+ goals
8%
Mallorca II 1+ goals
81%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
49%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
30%
Mallorca II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.99

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Collerense scores more
23%
level
25%
Mallorca II scores more
53%

Mallorca II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Collerense host Mallorca II

April 9, 2020: Collerense take on Mallorca II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Collerense host Mallorca II at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.