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Ravshan vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2014

Ravshan
Ravshan
FT
1 – 0
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
5/17/2014Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 5Stadion im. Langari Langarieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ravshan54%
×Draw26%
Istaravshan21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.56
Istaravshan
0.86

Ravshan creates 81% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.27
Istaravshan
0.92

allows per match

Ravshan
0.81
Istaravshan
1.84

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
79%
Ravshan or Istaravshan
74%
Draw or Istaravshan
46%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
28%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
79%
Ravshan 2+ goals
46%
Ravshan 3+ goals
21%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
58%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
21%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
72%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.27 + Istaravshan defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Istaravshan attack 0.92 + Ravshan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ravshan scores more
54%
level
26%
Istaravshan scores more
21%

Ravshan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ravshan vs Istaravshan

Ravshan beat Istaravshan 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 17, 2014.

The match was played at Stadion im. Langari Langarieva in Kulyab.