Loughgall 1–1 Portadown: Result & Stats

Loughgall

FT

1 – 1

Portadown

8/10/2018

Championship · Round 1Lakeview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Loughgall46%

×Draw25%

Portadown28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoughgallExpected goals in this matchPortadown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.15

Loughgall

1.55

Portadown

1.15

Loughgall creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Loughgall

1.50

Portadown

1.30

allows per match

Loughgall

1.00

Portadown

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par

Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

Portadown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw

72%

Loughgall or Portadown

75%

Draw or Portadown

54%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+

24%

Portadown wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals

79%

Loughgall 2+ goals

46%

Loughgall 3+ goals

20%

Portadown 1+ goals

68%

Portadown 2+ goals

32%

Portadown 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)

62%

Portadown (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Portadown away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.50 + Portadown defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Portadown attack 1.30 + Loughgall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Loughgall scores more

46%

level

25%

Portadown scores more

28%

Loughgall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Loughgall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff