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Colindres vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Colindres
Colindres
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Castro
Castro
2/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Campos del Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colindres38%
×Draw28%
Castro34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colindres
1.22
Castro
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 96 away

creates per match

Colindres
0.98
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Colindres
1.24
Castro
1.46

finishing

Colindres+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colindres ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colindres or draw
66%
Colindres or Castro
72%
Draw or Castro
62%

Winning margin

Colindres wins by 2+
16%
Castro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Colindres 1+ goals
70%
Colindres 2+ goals
34%
Colindres 3+ goals
12%
Castro 1+ goals
68%
Castro 2+ goals
31%
Castro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colindres (draw refunded)
53%
Castro (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colindres at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colindres attack 0.98 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.22

Castro attack 1.02 + Colindres defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Colindres scores more
38%
level
28%
Castro scores more
34%

Colindres at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colindres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colindres vs Castro

Colindres and Castro drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Campos del Carmen in Colindres.