Coleraine FC 0–1 Portadown: Result & Stats

Coleraine FC

FT

0 – 1

Portadown

8/17/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Coleraine FC52%

×Draw23%

Portadown25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coleraine FCExpected goals in this matchPortadown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.15

Coleraine FC

1.77

Portadown

1.15

Coleraine FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

2.25

creates per match

1.79

0.50

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Coleraine FC

2.25

Portadown

1.79

allows per match

Coleraine FC

0.50

Portadown

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coleraine FC+0.00on par

Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coleraine FC ↓

Portadown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Coleraine FC or draw

75%

Coleraine FC or Portadown

77%

Draw or Portadown

48%

Winning margin

Coleraine FC wins by 2+

29%

Portadown wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Coleraine FC 1+ goals

83%

Coleraine FC 2+ goals

53%

Coleraine FC 3+ goals

26%

Portadown 1+ goals

68%

Portadown 2+ goals

32%

Portadown 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coleraine FC (draw refunded)

68%

Portadown (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coleraine FC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Portadown away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coleraine FC attack 2.25 + Portadown defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Portadown attack 1.79 + Coleraine FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Coleraine FC scores more

52%

level

23%

Portadown scores more

25%

Coleraine FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Coleraine FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff