Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coleraine FC vs Larne — League #408 2026

Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Preview
14:00
Larne
Larne
8/15/2026League #408League #408 · Round 2The Showgrounds
Big match
42%
Coleraine FC
model favours
42%28%30%

Coleraine FC are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Coleraine FC42%
×Draw28%
Larne30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coleraine FC
1.29
Larne
1.05

Coleraine FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Coleraine FC
1.86
Larne
1.38

allows per match

Coleraine FC
0.72
Larne
0.73

finishing

Coleraine FC+0.00on par
Larne+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coleraine FC ↓

Larne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coleraine FC or draw
70%
Coleraine FC or Larne
72%
Draw or Larne
58%

Winning margin

Coleraine FC wins by 2+
19%
Larne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coleraine FC 1+ goals
72%
Coleraine FC 2+ goals
37%
Coleraine FC 3+ goals
14%
Larne 1+ goals
65%
Larne 2+ goals
28%
Larne 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Coleraine FC (draw refunded)
58%
Larne (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coleraine FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Larne away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coleraine FC attack 1.86 + Larne defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Larne attack 1.38 + Coleraine FC defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coleraine FC scores more
42%
level
28%
Larne scores more
30%

Coleraine FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coleraine FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Coleraine FC have won 5 in a row
  • Coleraine FC have scored in 13 games running
  • When Coleraine FC score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Larne score first in 61% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Coleraine FC 2 vs Larne 3
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Larne’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
WWWW
Larne
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coleraine FC face Larne (League #408)

League #408 returns with Coleraine FC hosting Larne. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Coleraine FC host Larne at The Showgrounds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.