Colchester 1–2 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Morecambe

M. Folivi 23'

Y. Songo'o 61'

J. O'Sullivan 8'

12/19/2020

League Two · Round 19JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Colchester46%

×Draw26%

Morecambe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.14

Colchester

1.52

Morecambe

1.14

Colchester creates 33% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 93 away

1.32

creates per match

1.17

1.10

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

71%

Colchester or Morecambe

74%

Draw or Morecambe

54%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

23%

Morecambe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

78%

Colchester 2+ goals

45%

Colchester 3+ goals

20%

Morecambe 1+ goals

68%

Morecambe 2+ goals

32%

Morecambe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

62%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colchester scores more

46%

level

26%

Morecambe scores more

29%

Colchester at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. O'Sullivan

Morecambe · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

J. O'Sullivan

23'

Ryan Cooney

23'

M. Folivi↳ C. Bramall

46'

T. Diagouraga← A. Phillips

60'

L. Norris← J. Brown

60'

M. Welch-Hayes← J. Tchamadeu

60'

K. Poku← C. Harriott

61'

Y. Songo'o↳ T. Diagouraga

66'

L. Gambin← N. Chilvers

90'

Carlos Mendes Gomes

90+1'

L. Gibson← A. Wildig

90+1'

A. Kenyon← J. OSullivan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterMorecambe

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots19

4Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots19

3On Target10

5Off Target7

0Blocked2

5Inside Box16

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

414Total Passes314

316Accurate Passes195

76%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1