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Colchester vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
15:00
Gillingham
Gillingham
11/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 15
Big match
49%
Colchester
model favours
49%26%26%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Colchester49%
×Draw26%
Gillingham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.53
Gillingham
1.04

Colchester creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.53
Gillingham
1.21

allows per match

Colchester
0.87
Gillingham
1.53

finishing

Colchester+0.14scores more
Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
74%
Colchester or Gillingham
74%
Draw or Gillingham
51%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
25%
Gillingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
78%
Colchester 2+ goals
45%
Colchester 3+ goals
20%
Gillingham 1+ goals
65%
Gillingham 2+ goals
28%
Gillingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
65%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.87 · 12 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.53 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Colchester defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colchester scores more
49%
level
26%
Gillingham scores more
26%

Colchester at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Colchester
Balanced
Gillingham
Balanced
51%Possession48%
70%Pass accuracyBiggest gap64%
11.3Shots11.7
1.32xG1.30
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterGillingham

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
Colchester
3
Draws
3
Gillingham
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 22%
1–10–01–12–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
Gillingham
WLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Gillingham — Match Preview

Colchester face Gillingham on November 14, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.