Colchester 0–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Gillingham

T. Nichols 45+3'

D. Tutonda 36'

1/21/2023

League Two · Round 28JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Colchester46%

×Draw26%

Gillingham28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.10

Colchester

1.47

Gillingham

1.10

Colchester creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.41

creates per match

1.21

0.99

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Gillingham

1.21

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Gillingham

1.53

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

72%

Colchester or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

54%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

22%

Gillingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

77%

Colchester 2+ goals

43%

Colchester 3+ goals

18%

Gillingham 1+ goals

67%

Gillingham 2+ goals

30%

Gillingham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

62%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colchester scores more

46%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

28%

Colchester at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Morris

Gillingham · G

8.6

Match Events

27'

Shaun Williams

36'

D. Tutonda↳ T. Dieng

45+3'

T. Nichols↳ A. MacDonald

53'

A. Read← O. Ashley

61'

John Akinde

63'

S. Tovide← T. Dallison-Lisbon

68'

David Tutonda

73'

C. Alexander← A. MacDonald

73'

G. Lapslie← T. Nichols

83'

L. Hannant← M. Jay

90'

S. O'Keefe← D. Jefferies

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterGillingham

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots6

8Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots6

6On Target3

2Off Target2

7Blocked1

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box0

Passing

63%Possession37%

412Total Passes245

300Accurate Passes130

73%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0