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Colchester vs Gillingham — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Colchester
Colchester
FT
0 – 2
Gillingham
Gillingham
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colchester15%
×Draw19%
Gillingham66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
0.94
Gillingham
2.20

Gillingham creates 134% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.14
Gillingham
2.25

allows per match

Colchester
2.14
Gillingham
0.75

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
34%
Colchester or Gillingham
81%
Draw or Gillingham
85%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
5%
Gillingham wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
61%
Colchester 2+ goals
24%
Colchester 3+ goals
7%
Gillingham 1+ goals
89%
Gillingham 2+ goals
64%
Gillingham 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
19%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Gillingham away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.14 + Gillingham defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Gillingham attack 2.25 + Colchester defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Colchester scores more
15%
level
19%
Gillingham scores more
66%

Gillingham at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Colchester 0–2 Gillingham

Gillingham beat Colchester 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.