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Colchester vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
14:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7
Big match
47%
Colchester
model favours
47%27%26%
1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Colchester47%
×Draw27%
Cheltenham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.44
Cheltenham
1.00

Colchester creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.46
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Colchester
1.00
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Colchester+0.08on par
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
74%
Colchester or Cheltenham
73%
Draw or Cheltenham
53%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
23%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
76%
Colchester 2+ goals
42%
Colchester 3+ goals
18%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
63%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
26%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
64%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.46 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colchester scores more
47%
level
27%
Cheltenham scores more
26%

Colchester at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Colchester
Balanced
Cheltenham
Balanced
51%Possession48%
71%Pass accuracy65%
11.3Shots10.5
1.29xGBiggest gap1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterCheltenham

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

3
Colchester
1
Draws
3
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 29%
4–12–01–01–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester face Cheltenham (League Two)

League Two returns with Colchester hosting Cheltenham. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.