Codru Lozova 1–2 Sfîntul Gheorghe: Result & Stats

Codru Lozova

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sfîntul Gheorghe

A. Rusu 52'

V. Cemîrtan 44', 22'

5/18/2019

Super Liga · Round 10Baza Zimbru (Chişinău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Codru Lozova16%

×Draw20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Codru LozovaExpected goals in this matchSfîntul Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

2.20

Codru Lozova

1.01

Sfîntul Gheorghe

2.20

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 118% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 56 away

0.61

creates per match

1.46

2.93

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Codru Lozova

0.61

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.46

allows per match

Codru Lozova

2.93

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Codru Lozova ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Codru Lozova or draw

36%

Codru Lozova or Sfîntul Gheorghe

80%

Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe

84%

Winning margin

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

6%

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

64%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

27%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

8%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

89%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

64%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Codru Lozova at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Codru Lozova attack 0.61 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.01

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.46 + Codru Lozova defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Codru Lozova scores more

16%

level

20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

64%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

27'

44'

52'

57'

G. Kirakosyan← A. Boiciuc

72'

A. Suvorov← D. Mandricenco

78'

C. Ţîbuleac← N. Trifonov

88'

S. Istrati← V. Cemîrtan

Codru

Sfîntul

28

3

19

21

5

17

97

22

▼

Mandricen

13

⚽2

▼

Cemîrtan

9

▼

99

25

2

11

30

44

90

▼

10

9

99

8

19

▼

Trifonov

Manager: V. Andronic

27'▲A. Rusu←▼B. Stoianov

78'▲C. Ţîbuleac←▼N. Trifonov

Codru Lozova substitutes

5Rusu6Ţîbuleac97Nazar7Adam23Zabun77Drab34Semenchenko

Manager: S. Cebotari

57'▲G. Kirakosyan←▼A. Boiciuc

72'▲A. Suvorov←▼D. Mandricenco

88'▲S. Istrati←▼V. Cemîrtan

Sfîntul Gheorghe substitutes

11Kirakosyan7Suvorov10Istrati1Railean4Novicov8Calac15Martin