Codru Lozova 0–2 Milsami Orhei: Result & Stats

Codru Lozova

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Milsami Orhei

S. Nazar 36'

F. Andriuhin 32'

8/3/2019

Super Liga · Round 16Baza Zimbru (Chişinău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Codru Lozova15%

×Draw19%

Milsami Orhei66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Codru LozovaExpected goals in this matchMilsami Orhei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.20

Codru Lozova

0.94

Milsami Orhei

2.20

Milsami Orhei creates 134% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 97 away

0.61

creates per match

1.46

2.93

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Codru Lozova

0.61

Milsami Orhei

1.46

allows per match

Codru Lozova

2.93

Milsami Orhei

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Codru Lozova ↓

Milsami Orhei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Codru Lozova or draw

34%

Codru Lozova or Milsami Orhei

81%

Draw or Milsami Orhei

85%

Winning margin

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

5%

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

61%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

24%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

7%

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

89%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

64%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

19%

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Codru Lozova at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Codru Lozova attack 0.61 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.94

Milsami Orhei attack 1.46 + Codru Lozova defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Codru Lozova scores more

15%

level

19%

Milsami Orhei scores more

66%

Milsami Orhei at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

32'

35'

36'

37'

43'

56'

E. Zaplitnîi← G. Suciu

59'

G. Coșcodan← D. Adam

64'

V. Tiron← D. Buhanenco

70'

D. Ciobanu← G. Ba

78'

V. Bolohan

80'

A. Antoniuc

90+1'

O. Martin← A. Antoniuc

Codru

Milsami

31

Chirinciu

23

Bolohan

4

Jardan

14

⚽

Andriuhin

19

▼

Ba

16

▼

7

98

9

21

15

⚽

25

44

2

11

30

28

34

99

▼

Suciu

7

▼

Adam

9

Chirciu

90

▼

Buhanenco

Manager: V. Andronic

56'▲E. Zaplitnîi←▼G. Suciu

59'▲G. Coșcodan←▼D. Adam

64'▲V. Tiron←▼D. Buhanenco

Codru Lozova substitutes

6Zaplitnîi19Coșcodan10Tiron5Jalbă77Drab8Garșinschi

Manager: V. Rusnac

70'▲D. Ciobanu←▼G. Ba

90+1'▲O. Martin←▼A. Antoniuc

Milsami Orhei substitutes

11Ciobanu17Martin12Butuc