Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coca-Cola vs Pyramids FC — League Cup 2021

Coca-Cola
Coca-Cola
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
1/16/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Coca-Cola46%
×Draw27%
Pyramids FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coca-Cola
1.38
Pyramids FC
0.99

Coca-Cola creates 39% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Coca-Cola
0.75
Pyramids FC
0.89

allows per match

Coca-Cola
1.08
Pyramids FC
2.00

finishing

Coca-Cola+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coca-Cola ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coca-Cola or draw
73%
Coca-Cola or Pyramids FC
73%
Draw or Pyramids FC
54%

Winning margin

Coca-Cola wins by 2+
22%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Coca-Cola 1+ goals
75%
Coca-Cola 2+ goals
40%
Coca-Cola 3+ goals
16%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
63%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
26%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coca-Cola (draw refunded)
63%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coca-Cola at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coca-Cola attack 0.75 + Pyramids FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pyramids FC attack 0.89 + Coca-Cola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coca-Cola scores more
46%
level
27%
Pyramids FC scores more
27%

Coca-Cola at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coca-Cola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Coca-Cola 2–1 Pyramids FC

Coca-Cola beat Pyramids FC 2-1 in League Cup on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.