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Cobresal vs D. La Serena — Primera División 2018

Cobresal
Cobresal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
D. La Serena
D. La Serena
C. Munder 86'
D. Coelho 69'
L. Alarcon 36' (OG)
N. Ferreyra 78'
2/23/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 2Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cobresal56%
×Draw22%
D. La Serena21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobresal
1.90
D. La Serena
1.08

Cobresal creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cobresal
1.86
D. La Serena
1.05

allows per match

Cobresal
1.12
D. La Serena
1.94

finishing

Cobresal-0.19scores less
D. La Serena-0.48scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

D. La Serena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw
79%
Cobresal or D. La Serena
78%
Draw or D. La Serena
44%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+
33%
D. La Serena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals
85%
Cobresal 2+ goals
56%
Cobresal 3+ goals
29%
D. La Serena 1+ goals
66%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
29%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)
73%
D. La Serena (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.94 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + D. La Serena defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

D. La Serena attack 1.05 + Cobresal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cobresal scores more
56%
level
22%
D. La Serena scores more
21%

Cobresal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. A. Henriquez NeiraCobresalCobresal · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
Jorge Henríquez
13'
Felipe Chamorro
18'
Franco Bechtholdt
36'
L. AlarconOwn goal
40'
Diego Céspedes
44'
Andrés Vilches
48'
Diego CoelhoGoal cancelled
61'
C. Mesias← A. Vilches Araneda
61'
C. Munder← C. Yanis
63'
A. Zanini← F. Chamorro
68'
G. A. Jara Gonzalez← S. Gallegos
69'
Jhonatan Kauan← F. Diaz
69'
D. Coelho↳ J. A. Henriquez Neira
71'
Diego CoelhoGoal confirmed
78'
N. Ferreyra↳ J. Rojas
79'
A. Marquez← J. A. Henriquez Neira
79'
S. Carrasco← D. Coelho
81'
M. Villarroel← J. Vargas
81'
R. M. Dubo Vergara← F. Dinamarca
83'
C. Toro← J. Tiznado
86'
C. Munder↳ C. Mesias
88'
Jhonatan Kauan
90+5'
Cristhofer MesíasRed card cancelled
90'
Cristhofer MesíasGoal cancelled
90+6'
Rodrigo Dubó

Possession

47%Cobresal

Shots

11Cobresal

Pass accuracy

49%Cobresal

Statistics

CobresalD.
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots10
4Corners3
18Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots10
3On Target4
8Off Target3
0Blocked3
6Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
319Total Passes367
262Accurate Passes309
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls12
4Yellow Cards3
4Offsides0

Primera División: Cobresal 3–1 D. La Serena

Cobresal beat D. La Serena 3-1 in Primera División on February 23, 2025.

Goals: L. Alarcon (36' o.g.), D. Coelho (69'), N. Ferreyra (78'), C. Munder (86').

D. La Serena controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador in El Salvador.