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Cobreloa vs Deportes Valdivia — Primera B 2018

Cobreloa
Cobreloa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
3/18/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 6Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cobreloa59%
×Draw22%
Deportes Valdivia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobreloa
1.91
Deportes Valdivia
0.97

Cobreloa creates 97% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cobreloa
1.75
Deportes Valdivia
1.06

allows per match

Cobreloa
0.88
Deportes Valdivia
2.06

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw
81%
Cobreloa or Deportes Valdivia
78%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
41%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+
35%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals
85%
Cobreloa 2+ goals
57%
Cobreloa 3+ goals
30%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
62%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
25%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)
76%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 107 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.75 + Deportes Valdivia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.91

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.06 + Cobreloa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cobreloa scores more
59%
level
22%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
19%

Cobreloa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cobreloa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cobreloa 2–0 Deportes Valdivia

Cobreloa beat Deportes Valdivia 2-0 in Primera B on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama).