Cobreloa 4–2 Antofagasta: Result & Stats

Cobreloa

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Antofagasta

G. Gotti 65', 36', 30'

A. Delgado 43'

T. Figueroa 45', 24'

3/28/2025

Primera B · Round 5Estadio Zorros del Desierto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cobreloa52%

×Draw25%

Antofagasta24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobreloaExpected goals in this matchAntofagasta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.00

Cobreloa

1.61

Antofagasta

1.00

Cobreloa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 57 away

1.75

creates per match

1.12

0.88

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Cobreloa

1.75

Antofagasta

1.12

allows per match

Cobreloa

0.88

Antofagasta

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par

Antofagasta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

Antofagasta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw

76%

Cobreloa or Antofagasta

75%

Draw or Antofagasta

48%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+

27%

Antofagasta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals

80%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

48%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

22%

Antofagasta 1+ goals

63%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

26%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

69%

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 101 matches

Antofagasta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.75 + Antofagasta defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.61

Antofagasta attack 1.12 + Cobreloa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cobreloa scores more

52%

level

25%

Antofagasta scores more

24%

Cobreloa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cobreloa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

30'

36'

38'

43'

45'

46'

46'

M. Contreras← R. Astorga

53'

C. Diaz

61'

A. Delgado

65'

G. Gotti

66'

L. Barrera← A. Valdes

67'

68'

68'

68'

72'

72'

B. Bustamante← A. Delgado

89'

W. Ponce← G. Gotti

89'

G. Navarrete← I. Ledezma

90+2'

W. Ponce

Cobreloa

Antofagasta

1

Cisternas

25

▼

Siegler

19

Larenas

5

▼

Astorga

21

▼

Manzano

10

▼

Souper

6

Diaz

16

Viveros

32

⚽2

Figueroa

8

▼

11

1

4

32

▼

Zuniga

22

⚽

▼

Delgado

30

▼

17

16

6

15

▼

Valdes

7

⚽3

▼

Gotti

21

Muga

Manager: César Alexis Bravo Castillo

66'▲L. Barrera←▼A. Valdes

72'▲L. Garcia←▼S. Zuniga

72'▲B. Bustamante←▼A. Delgado

89'▲W. Ponce←▼G. Gotti

89'▲G. Navarrete←▼I. Ledezma

Cobreloa substitutes

31Salazar9Ponce20Barrera23Navarrete24Garcia25Acevedo35Bustamante

Manager: Hernán Álex Peña González

46'▲B. Nieto←▼F. Siegler

46'▲M. Contreras←▼R. Astorga

68'▲F. Baez←▼F. Manzano

68'▲I. Jara←▼A. Souper

68'▲C. Bravo←▼R. Paredes

Antofagasta substitutes

22Marin17Nieto31Contreras15Baez30Jara7Bravo24Alvarez

Match Recap: Cobreloa vs Antofagasta

Cobreloa beat Antofagasta 4-2 in Primera B on March 28, 2025.

Goals: T. Figueroa (24', 45'), G. Gotti (30', 36', 65'), A. Delgado (43').

The match was played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Calama.

Cobreloa vs Antofagasta — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cobreloa vs Antofagasta