Cobh Ramblers vs Bray Wanderers

Cobh Ramblers

Preview

18:45

Bray Wanderers

7/24/2026

First Division · Round 24

Big match

40%

Cobh Ramblers

model favours

40%25%35%

Cobh Ramblers score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Cobh Ramblers40%

×Draw25%

Bray Wanderers35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cobh RamblersExpected goals in this matchBray Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.33

Cobh Ramblers

1.44

Bray Wanderers

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 119 away

1.47

creates per match

1.25

1.41

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Cobh Ramblers

1.47

Bray Wanderers

1.25

allows per match

Cobh Ramblers

1.41

Bray Wanderers

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobh Ramblers ↓

Bray Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cobh Ramblers or draw

65%

Cobh Ramblers or Bray Wanderers

75%

Draw or Bray Wanderers

60%

Winning margin

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

19%

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

76%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

42%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

18%

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

74%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

38%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

53%

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobh Ramblers at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.41 · 116 matches

Bray Wanderers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.41 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.47 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bray Wanderers attack 1.25 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cobh Ramblers scores more

40%

level

25%

Bray Wanderers scores more

35%

Cobh Ramblers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cobh Ramblers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Bray Wanderers have won 3 in a row
Both teams score in 79% of Bray Wanderers’s matches
71% of Bray Wanderers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both teams score in 71% of Cobh Ramblers’s matches
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Ramblers

LLLLW

Wanderers

WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff