Cobán Imperial 2–0 Xinabajul: Result & Stats

Cobán Imperial

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xinabajul

10/1/2023

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 10Estadio Verapaz Jose Angel Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Cobán Imperial57%

×Draw24%

Xinabajul19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cobán ImperialExpected goals in this matchXinabajul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.85

Cobán Imperial

1.69

Xinabajul

0.85

Cobán Imperial creates 99% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 59 away

1.51

creates per match

0.90

0.80

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Cobán Imperial

1.51

Xinabajul

0.90

allows per match

Cobán Imperial

0.80

Xinabajul

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Xinabajul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobán Imperial ↓

Xinabajul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cobán Imperial or draw

81%

Cobán Imperial or Xinabajul

76%

Draw or Xinabajul

43%

Winning margin

Cobán Imperial wins by 2+

32%

Xinabajul wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cobán Imperial 1+ goals

82%

Cobán Imperial 2+ goals

50%

Cobán Imperial 3+ goals

24%

Xinabajul 1+ goals

57%

Xinabajul 2+ goals

21%

Xinabajul 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)

75%

Xinabajul (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobán Imperial at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.80 · 146 matches

Xinabajul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobán Imperial attack 1.51 + Xinabajul defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Xinabajul attack 0.90 + Cobán Imperial defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cobán Imperial scores more

57%

level

24%

Xinabajul scores more

19%

Cobán Imperial at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cobán Imperial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff