Cobán Imperial 1–1 Achuapa: Result & Stats

Cobán Imperial

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Achuapa

11/19/2023

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 11Estadio Verapaz Jose Angel Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Cobán Imperial58%

×Draw25%

Achuapa17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cobán ImperialExpected goals in this matchAchuapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.75

Cobán Imperial

1.63

Achuapa

0.75

Cobán Imperial creates 117% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 122 away

1.51

creates per match

0.70

0.80

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Cobán Imperial

1.51

Achuapa

0.70

allows per match

Cobán Imperial

0.80

Achuapa

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Achuapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobán Imperial ↓

Achuapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cobán Imperial or draw

83%

Cobán Imperial or Achuapa

75%

Draw or Achuapa

42%

Winning margin

Cobán Imperial wins by 2+

32%

Achuapa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cobán Imperial 1+ goals

80%

Cobán Imperial 2+ goals

48%

Cobán Imperial 3+ goals

22%

Achuapa 1+ goals

53%

Achuapa 2+ goals

17%

Achuapa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)

77%

Achuapa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobán Imperial at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.80 · 146 matches

Achuapa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.75 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobán Imperial attack 1.51 + Achuapa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Achuapa attack 0.70 + Cobán Imperial defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cobán Imperial scores more

58%

level

25%

Achuapa scores more

17%

Cobán Imperial at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cobán Imperial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff