Clyde 1–1 Edinburgh City: Result & Stats

Clyde

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Edinburgh City

M. McNiff 90+5'

C. Balatoni 44'

7/14/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Broadwood Stadium (Cumbernauld)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Clyde59%

×Draw21%

Edinburgh City20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClydeExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.18

Clyde

2.14

Edinburgh City

1.18

Clyde creates 81% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.14

creates per match

0.50

1.86

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Clyde

1.14

Edinburgh City

0.50

allows per match

Clyde

1.86

Edinburgh City

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clyde+0.00on par

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clyde ↓

Edinburgh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Clyde or draw

80%

Clyde or Edinburgh City

79%

Draw or Edinburgh City

41%

Winning margin

Clyde wins by 2+

36%

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Clyde 1+ goals

88%

Clyde 2+ goals

63%

Clyde 3+ goals

36%

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

69%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

33%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Clyde (draw refunded)

74%

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clyde at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clyde attack 1.14 + Edinburgh City defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.14

Edinburgh City attack 0.50 + Clyde defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Clyde scores more

59%

level

21%

Edinburgh City scores more

20%

Clyde at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Clyde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

C. Balatoni↳ C. Thomson

53'

K. Duffie← C. McStay

66'

E. Ferns← J. Boyle

70'

K. Stewart← J. Walker

78'

K. Nicoll← K. Duffie

83'

J. Dunn← D. Handling

90+5'

M. McNiff↳ J. Rankin

Clyde

Edinburgh

1

Antell

5

⚽

Balatoni

3

McIntyre

15

Donaldson

8

▼

Walker

6

Laird

2

A

Thomson

10

▼

4

11

9

1

6

8

A

Rankin

5

⚽

3

15

7

12

11

▼

Boyle

10

▼

McStay

9

Goodwilli

Manager: D. Lennon

53'▲K. Duffie←▼C. McStay

66'▲E. Ferns←▼J. Boyle

78'▲K. Nicoll←▼K. Duffie

Clyde substitutes

2Duffie19Ferns16Nicoll18Rumsby17Cogill21Hughes20Millar

Manager: J. McDonaugh

70'▲K. Stewart←▼J. Walker

83'▲J. Dunn←▼D. Handling

Edinburgh City substitutes

16Stewart18Dunn14Rodger17Hall21Morton20Shaw19Lumsden