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Clyde vs Dumbarton — League Cup 2018

Clyde
Clyde
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
10/10/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3Broadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Clyde53%
×Draw22%
Dumbarton25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clyde
1.94
Dumbarton
1.27

Clyde creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Clyde
1.14
Dumbarton
0.67

allows per match

Clyde
1.86
Dumbarton
2.73

finishing

Clyde+0.00on par
Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clyde ↓

Dumbarton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Clyde or draw
75%
Clyde or Dumbarton
78%
Draw or Dumbarton
47%

Winning margin

Clyde wins by 2+
30%
Dumbarton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Clyde 1+ goals
86%
Clyde 2+ goals
58%
Clyde 3+ goals
30%
Dumbarton 1+ goals
72%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
36%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Clyde (draw refunded)
68%
Dumbarton (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clyde at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clyde attack 1.14 + Dumbarton defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dumbarton attack 0.67 + Clyde defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Clyde scores more
53%
level
22%
Dumbarton scores more
25%

Clyde at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Clyde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Clyde 3–2 Dumbarton

Clyde beat Dumbarton 3-2 in League Cup on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Broadwood Stadium in Cumbernauld.