Club Tijuana 1–0 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Tijuana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Necaxa

M. Bolaños 86'

9/1/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Club Tijuana47%

×Draw24%

Necaxa29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.23

Club Tijuana

1.63

Necaxa

1.23

Club Tijuana creates 33% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 139 away

1.54

creates per match

1.27

1.19

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.54

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.19

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

71%

Club Tijuana or Necaxa

76%

Draw or Necaxa

53%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

24%

Necaxa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

80%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

48%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

22%

Necaxa 1+ goals

71%

Necaxa 2+ goals

35%

Necaxa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

62%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 139 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.54 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Club Tijuana defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

47%

level

24%

Necaxa scores more

29%

Club Tijuana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

G. Lajud

Club Tijuana · G

8.1

Match Events

46'

F. Castro← M. Allende

53'

J. Angulo← E. Torres

69'

E. Castillo← F. Castillo

69'

F. Gallegos← B. Fernández

86'

M. Bolaños↳ J. Lucero

89'

C. Peña← B. Beckeles

90'

Alejandro Mayorga

90+1'

H. Muñoz← M. Bolaños

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubNecaxa

Overview

45%Possession55%

17Total Shots20

6Corners3

9Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots20

5On Target4

11Off Target13

1Blocked3

11Inside Box7

6Outside Box13

Passing

45%Possession55%

398Total Passes484

306Accurate Passes392

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2