Club Tijuana 1–0 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats

Club Tijuana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CF Pachuca

9/23/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Club Tijuana42%

×Draw27%

CF Pachuca30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.08

Club Tijuana

1.32

CF Pachuca

1.08

Club Tijuana creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

1.16

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.44

CF Pachuca

1.00

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.16

CF Pachuca

1.20

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more

CF Pachuca+0.50scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

70%

Club Tijuana or CF Pachuca

73%

Draw or CF Pachuca

58%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

19%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

73%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

38%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

15%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

66%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

29%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

58%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + CF Pachuca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

CF Pachuca attack 1.00 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

42%

level

27%

CF Pachuca scores more

30%

Club Tijuana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff