Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4–1 Martin Ledesma

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

FT

4 – 1

Martin Ledesma

8/24/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Gunther Vogel (San Lorenzo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo51%

×Draw26%

Martin Ledesma23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Sp. San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.90

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.50

Martin Ledesma

0.90

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 60 away

1.64

creates per match

0.88

0.91

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.64

Martin Ledesma

0.88

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

0.91

Martin Ledesma

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw

77%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Martin Ledesma

74%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

49%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

26%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

78%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

44%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

19%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

59%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

23%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

69%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Martin Ledesma attack 0.88 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

51%

level

26%

Martin Ledesma scores more

23%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff