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Club River Plate vs Fernando De La Mora — Division Intermedia 2018

Club River Plate
Club River Plate
FT
1 – 2
Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
6/9/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 14Estadio River Plate (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Club River Plate39%
×Draw28%
Fernando De La Mora33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club River Plate
1.25
Fernando De La Mora
1.14

Club River Plate creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 113 away

creates per match

Club River Plate
1.24
Fernando De La Mora
1.16

allows per match

Club River Plate
1.11
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par
Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Fernando De La Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw
67%
Club River Plate or Fernando De La Mora
72%
Draw or Fernando De La Mora
61%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+
17%
Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals
71%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
36%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
13%
Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
68%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
32%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)
54%
Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.24 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + Club River Plate defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club River Plate scores more
39%
level
28%
Fernando De La Mora scores more
33%

Club River Plate at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Club River Plate 1–2 Fernando De La Mora

Fernando De La Mora beat Club River Plate 2-1 in Division Intermedia on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio River Plate (Asunción).