Club Queretaro 0–2 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tigres UANL

A. Gignac 84', 49'

9/29/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Queretaro37%

×Draw27%

Tigres UANL36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.27

Club Queretaro

1.29

Tigres UANL

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.46

creates per match

0.91

1.63

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.46

Tigres UANL

0.91

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.63

Tigres UANL

1.12

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.60scores less

Tigres UANL+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

64%

Club Queretaro or Tigres UANL

73%

Draw or Tigres UANL

63%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

16%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

72%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

37%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

14%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

72%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

36%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

51%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.46 + Tigres UANL defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tigres UANL attack 0.91 + Club Queretaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

37%

level

27%

Tigres UANL scores more

36%

Club Queretaro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Gignac

Tigres UANL · F

8.6

Match Events

42'

46'

46'

49'

60'

62'

J. Suárez← A. Hernández

68'

71'

71'

79'

83'

J. Sánchez← L. Zelarayán

84'

A. Gignac↳ L. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubTigres

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots13

3Corners3

11Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots13

1On Target7

8Off Target3

2Blocked3

2Inside Box8

9Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

446Total Passes478

371Accurate Passes405

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3