Club Queretaro 0–2 Puebla: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Queretaro

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Puebla

2/6/2022

Liga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Club Queretaro44%

×Draw26%

Puebla29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Club Queretaro

1.42

Puebla

1.10

Club Queretaro creates 29% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 142 away

1.20

creates per match

1.05

1.16

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.20

Puebla

1.05

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.16

Puebla

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

71%

Club Queretaro or Puebla

74%

Draw or Puebla

56%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

21%

Puebla wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

76%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

41%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

17%

Puebla 1+ goals

67%

Puebla 2+ goals

30%

Puebla 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

60%

Puebla (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.16 · 136 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.20 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Puebla attack 1.05 + Club Queretaro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

44%

level

26%

Puebla scores more

29%

Club Queretaro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff