Club Queretaro 2–0 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Tijuana

A. Sepúlveda 90+2'

P. Barrera 3'

8/20/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Queretaro53%

×Draw22%

Club Tijuana25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.26

Club Queretaro

1.93

Club Tijuana

1.26

Club Queretaro creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.46

creates per match

0.90

1.63

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.46

Club Tijuana

0.90

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.63

Club Tijuana

2.40

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.60scores less

Club Tijuana+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

75%

Club Queretaro or Club Tijuana

78%

Draw or Club Tijuana

47%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

30%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

85%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

57%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

30%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

72%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

36%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

68%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.46 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.93

Club Tijuana attack 0.90 + Club Queretaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

53%

level

22%

Club Tijuana scores more

25%

Club Queretaro at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Rodríguez

Club Queretaro · G

7.3

Match Events

3'

14'

35'

41'

46'

C. Rivera← J. Vázquez

46'

F. Di Santo← E. López

52'

Jordan Silva

59'

Pablo Barrera

62'

A. Sepúlveda← J. Angulo

65'

R. Ibarra← L. Rodríguez

68'

M. Domínguez← A. Canelo

71'

Ismael Govea

75'

J. Hernández← R. López

76'

R. Torres← L. Sequeira

88'

Raúl Torres

90+1'

D. Cervantes← P. Barrera

90+2'

A. Sepúlveda↳ K. Escamilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubClub

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots10

6Corners5

11Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target1

5Off Target5

1Blocked4

5Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

304Total Passes469

224Accurate Passes371

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3