Club Queretaro vs Club America

Club Queretaro

Preview

03:10

Club America

7/19/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio La Corregidora

Big match

41%

Club America

model favours

33%27%41%

Club America score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Club Queretaro33%

×Draw27%

Club America41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

Club Queretaro

1.18

Club America

1.35

Club America creates 14% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 164 away

1.22

creates per match

1.54

1.17

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.22

Club America

1.54

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.17

Club America

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

59%

Club Queretaro or Club America

73%

Draw or Club America

67%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

13%

Club America wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

69%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

33%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

12%

Club America 1+ goals

74%

Club America 2+ goals

39%

Club America 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

45%

Club America (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Club America away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.14 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.22 + Club America defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Club America attack 1.54 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

33%

level

27%

Club America scores more

41%

Club America at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Club America have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
Style contrast — Club Queretaro play Direct / counter-attacking, Club America Possession-dominant
Club Queretaro fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.