Club Queretaro 1–2 Atlas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Queretaro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atlas

E. Gularte 81'

J. Zapata 90+1'

A. Solari 45+8'

8/31/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Queretaro44%

×Draw24%

Atlas32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchAtlas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.34

Club Queretaro

1.60

Atlas

1.34

Club Queretaro creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.46

creates per match

1.06

1.63

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.46

Atlas

1.06

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.63

Atlas

1.75

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.60scores less

Atlas+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Atlas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

68%

Club Queretaro or Atlas

76%

Draw or Atlas

56%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

22%

Atlas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

80%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

47%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

22%

Atlas 1+ goals

74%

Atlas 2+ goals

39%

Atlas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

58%

Atlas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.46 + Atlas defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atlas attack 1.06 + Club Queretaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

44%

level

24%

Atlas scores more

32%

Club Queretaro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

L. Reyes

Atlas · D

8.0

Match Events

4'

Jordy Caicedo

16'

Federico Lértora

22'

Emanuel GulartePenalty cancelled

31'

Aldo Rocha

34'

Emanuel GularteRed card cancelled

36'

Emanuel Gularte

45+8'

A. Solari↳ L. Reyes

46'

G. Aguirre← A. Santamaría

54'

J. Lozano← B. Lozano

59'

J. Sierra← M. García

62'

Omar Mendoza

62'

Omar MendozaCard upgrade

67'

J. Montecinos← E. Ayón

67'

R. Zúñiga← Camilo Sanvezzo

73'

J. Martínez← J. Márquez

74'

É. Zaldívar← A. Rocha

81'

E. Gularte↳ P. Barrera

84'

Jordan Sierra

90+7'

Jaime Gomez

90+2'

A. García← P. Barrera

90+1'

J. Zapata↳ L. Reyes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAtlas

Overview

38%Possession62%

15Total Shots9

7Corners3

16Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target5

10Off Target4

2Blocked0

11Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

296Total Passes512

225Accurate Passes427

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0