Club Queretaro 1–2 Atlas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Queretaro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atlas

Camilo Sanvezzo 40'

O. Martínez 50'

J. Isijara 42'

1/5/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Queretaro42%

×Draw25%

Atlas33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchAtlas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.35

Club Queretaro

1.54

Atlas

1.35

Club Queretaro creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.46

creates per match

1.08

1.63

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.46

Atlas

1.08

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.63

Atlas

1.62

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.60scores less

Atlas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Atlas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

67%

Club Queretaro or Atlas

75%

Draw or Atlas

58%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

21%

Atlas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

79%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

45%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

20%

Atlas 1+ goals

74%

Atlas 2+ goals

39%

Atlas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

56%

Atlas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.46 + Atlas defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atlas attack 1.08 + Club Queretaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

42%

level

25%

Atlas scores more

33%

Club Queretaro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Camilo Sanvezzo

Club Queretaro · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

Omar Gonzalez

14'

Edgar Zaldívar

19'

Anderson Santamaría

40'

Camilo Sanvezzo↳ G. Corral

42'

J. Isijara↳ H. Burbano

50'

O. Martínez↳ J. Vigón

58'

Miguel Samudio

62'

A. Loba← J. Gómez

72'

D. Lajud← M. Ruiz

73'

I. Govea← J. Duque

79'

J. Suárez← G. Corral

82'

U. Cardona← H. Burbano

89'

J. Ávila← O. Martínez

90'

Jonathan Suárez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAtlas

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots15

2Corners3

16Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target6

5Off Target6

3Blocked3

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

406Total Passes383

324Accurate Passes305

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1