Club Nacional 4–2 Racing Montevideo: Result & Stats

Club Nacional

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Racing Montevideo

5/3/2024

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Club Nacional56%

×Draw24%

Racing Montevideo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club NacionalExpected goals in this matchRacing Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.93

Club Nacional

1.72

Racing Montevideo

0.93

Club Nacional creates 85% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 56 away

2.07

creates per match

1.18

0.69

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Club Nacional

2.07

Racing Montevideo

1.18

allows per match

Club Nacional

0.69

Racing Montevideo

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Racing Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw

80%

Club Nacional or Racing Montevideo

76%

Draw or Racing Montevideo

44%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+

31%

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals

82%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

51%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

25%

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals

61%

Racing Montevideo 2+ goals

24%

Racing Montevideo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

73%

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.69 · 87 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 2.07 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.72

Racing Montevideo attack 1.18 + Club Nacional defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Club Nacional scores more

56%

level

24%

Racing Montevideo scores more

20%

Club Nacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff