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Club Nacional vs Progreso — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Club Nacional
Club Nacional
Preview
22:30
Progreso
Progreso
7/24/2026Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Torneo Intermedio - 7Gran Parque Central
Big match
58%
Club Nacional
model favours
58%23%19%

Club Nacional score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club Nacional58%
×Draw23%
Progreso19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Nacional
1.77
Progreso
0.89

Club Nacional creates 99% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Club Nacional
1.95
Progreso
0.91

allows per match

Club Nacional
0.86
Progreso
1.59

finishing

Club Nacional+0.00on par
Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Progreso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw
81%
Club Nacional or Progreso
77%
Draw or Progreso
42%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+
33%
Progreso wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals
83%
Club Nacional 2+ goals
53%
Club Nacional 3+ goals
26%
Progreso 1+ goals
59%
Progreso 2+ goals
22%
Progreso 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)
76%
Progreso (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Progreso away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 1.95 + Progreso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Progreso attack 0.91 + Club Nacional defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Club Nacional scores more
58%
level
23%
Progreso scores more
19%

Club Nacional at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Club Nacional are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Club Nacional have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 70% of Progreso’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of Club Nacional’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nacional
DWLWW
Progreso
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Club Nacional host Progreso

July 24, 2026: Club Nacional take on Progreso in Primera División - Apertura. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Club Nacional host Progreso at Gran Parque Central.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.