Club Nacional vs Progreso — Primera División - Apertura 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 40+ matches
Club Nacional62%
Progreso16%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Club Nacional creates 127% more chances
Season form · 65 home / 40 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Club Nacional ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Club Nacional at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 65 matches
Progreso away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Club Nacional attack 2.08 + Progreso defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.84
Progreso attack 0.93 + Club Nacional defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Club Nacional at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Racing MontevideoClub Nacional
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
Boston River
Plaza Colonia
CA River Plate
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
Fenix
Cerro
Wanderers
La LuzPenarolClub NacionalDefensor SportingCerro LargoLiverpool MontevideoWanderersCA River PlateDeportivo MaldonadoLa LuzCerroAtletico TorquePlaza ColoniaDanubioRacing MontevideoBoston RiverFenixIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Club Nacional host Progreso on Saturday, 23 March 2024 at 21:30. The match is part of the Primera División - Apertura 2021/2022 season.
Club Nacional 0 – 0 Progreso
Club Nacional and Progreso drew 0-0 in Primera División - Apertura on March 23, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Gran Parque Central in Montevideo.