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Club Brugge W vs OH Leuven W — Super League Women 2018

Club Brugge W
Club Brugge W
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
OH Leuven W
OH Leuven W
11/18/2023Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 9Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Club Brugge W35%
×Draw22%
OH Leuven W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Brugge W
1.63
OH Leuven W
1.84

OH Leuven W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 101 away

creates per match

Club Brugge W
1.89
OH Leuven W
2.07

allows per match

Club Brugge W
1.62
OH Leuven W
1.38

finishing

Club Brugge W+0.00on par
OH Leuven W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge W ↓

OH Leuven W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Club Brugge W or draw
57%
Club Brugge W or OH Leuven W
78%
Draw or OH Leuven W
65%

Winning margin

Club Brugge W wins by 2+
17%
OH Leuven W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Club Brugge W 1+ goals
80%
Club Brugge W 2+ goals
48%
Club Brugge W 3+ goals
22%
OH Leuven W 1+ goals
84%
OH Leuven W 2+ goals
55%
OH Leuven W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge W (draw refunded)
45%
OH Leuven W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.62 · 92 matches

OH Leuven W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge W attack 1.89 + OH Leuven W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

OH Leuven W attack 2.07 + Club Brugge W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club Brugge W scores more
35%
level
22%
OH Leuven W scores more
43%

OH Leuven W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OH Leuven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Club Brugge W 5–3 OH Leuven W

Club Brugge W beat OH Leuven W 5-3 in Super League Women on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum in Aalter.