Club Brugge KV 1–1 Union St. Gilloise

Club Brugge KV

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union St. Gilloise

12/26/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 20Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Club Brugge KV46%

×Draw24%

Union St. Gilloise31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Gilloise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.37

Club Brugge KV

1.73

Union St. Gilloise

1.37

Club Brugge KV creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

2.33

creates per match

1.56

1.18

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.33

Union St. Gilloise

1.56

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

1.18

Union St. Gilloise

1.14

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.33scores more

Union St. Gilloise-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Union St. Gilloise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

69%

Club Brugge KV or Union St. Gilloise

76%

Draw or Union St. Gilloise

54%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

24%

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

82%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

52%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

25%

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

75%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

40%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

60%

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.14 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.33 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.56 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

46%

level

24%

Union St. Gilloise scores more

31%

Club Brugge KV at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff