Club Brugge KV 3–0 St. Truiden: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

St. Truiden

A. Skov Olsen 71'

R. Yaremchuk 66'

H. Vanaken 21'

10/19/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 13Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Club Brugge KV53%

×Draw22%

St. Truiden24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchSt. Truiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.24

Club Brugge KV

1.93

St. Truiden

1.24

Club Brugge KV creates 56% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 49 away

2.37

creates per match

1.32

1.16

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.37

St. Truiden

1.32

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

1.16

St. Truiden

1.49

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.21scores more

St. Truiden-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

St. Truiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

76%

Club Brugge KV or St. Truiden

78%

Draw or St. Truiden

47%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

31%

St. Truiden wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

85%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

57%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

30%

St. Truiden 1+ goals

71%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

35%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

69%

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.37 + St. Truiden defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.93

St. Truiden attack 1.32 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

53%

level

22%

St. Truiden scores more

24%

Club Brugge KV at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

H. Vanaken

Club Brugge KV · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

21'

49'

53'

58'

61'

63'

64'

N. Lang← A. Nusa

64'

A. Skov Olsen← T. Buchanan

66'

R. Yaremchuk↳ N. Lang

71'

M. Smets← C. Brüls

71'

A. Skov Olsen↳ B. Meijer

72'

S. Van Dessel← S. Okazaki

74'

K. Sowah← C. Nielsen

74'

É. Balanta← R. Onyedika

78'

Jorge Teixeira← F. Boya

80'

Ferran Jutglà← R. Yaremchuk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubSt.

Overview

72%Possession28%

12Total Shots7

8Corners1

14Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots7

7On Target2

3Off Target5

2Blocked0

10Inside Box2

2Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

648Total Passes254

569Accurate Passes181

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides5