Club Brugge KV 3–1 OH Leuven: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

OH Leuven

3/10/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 29Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Club Brugge KV58%

×Draw21%

OH Leuven21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchOH Leuven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.14

Club Brugge KV

2.04

OH Leuven

1.14

Club Brugge KV creates 79% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

2.33

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.33

OH Leuven

1.10

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

1.18

OH Leuven

1.75

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.33scores more

OH Leuven-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

OH Leuven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

79%

Club Brugge KV or OH Leuven

79%

Draw or OH Leuven

42%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

35%

OH Leuven wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

87%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

60%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

33%

OH Leuven 1+ goals

68%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

32%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

74%

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.33 + OH Leuven defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

OH Leuven attack 1.10 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

58%

level

21%

OH Leuven scores more

21%

Club Brugge KV at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff