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Club Brugge KV vs Gent — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gent
Gent
12/17/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 18Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Club Brugge KV54%
×Draw21%
Gent25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Brugge KV
2.05
Gent
1.32

Club Brugge KV creates 55% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

creates per match

Club Brugge KV
2.33
Gent
1.46

allows per match

Club Brugge KV
1.18
Gent
1.77

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.33scores more
Gent-0.29scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Gent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw
75%
Club Brugge KV or Gent
79%
Draw or Gent
46%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+
32%
Gent wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals
87%
Club Brugge KV 2+ goals
61%
Club Brugge KV 3+ goals
33%
Gent 1+ goals
73%
Gent 2+ goals
38%
Gent 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)
69%
Gent (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Gent away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.77 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.33 + Gent defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.05

Gent attack 1.46 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more
54%
level
21%
Gent scores more
25%

Club Brugge KV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Club Brugge KV 2–0 Gent

Club Brugge KV beat Gent 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.