Club Brugge KV 4–0 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cercle Brugge

Siebe Schrijvers 80', 53'

Hans Vanaken 39'

Wesley 6'

9/29/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 9Jan Breydel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Club Brugge KV51%

×Draw22%

Cercle Brugge27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.32

Club Brugge KV

1.90

Cercle Brugge

1.32

Club Brugge KV creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

2.29

creates per match

1.49

1.16

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.29

Cercle Brugge

1.49

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

1.16

Cercle Brugge

1.51

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.34scores more

Cercle Brugge-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

73%

Club Brugge KV or Cercle Brugge

78%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

49%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

29%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

85%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

56%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

29%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

73%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

38%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

66%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.16 · 30 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.51 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.29 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

Cercle Brugge attack 1.49 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

51%

level

22%

Cercle Brugge scores more

27%

Club Brugge KV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Wesley

39'

Hans Vanaken↳ Wesley

43'

Guevin Tormin

43'

Serge Gakpé← Gianni Bruno

45'

Yoann Etienne

51'

Wesley

53'

Siebe Schrijvers↳ Thibault Vlietinck

57'

Vitinho← Vitinho

59'

Xavier Mercier

60'

Marvelous Nakamba← Mats Rits

63'

Jeremy Taravel

64'

Clinton Mata← Thibault Vlietinck

67'

70'

74'

79'

79'

Kevin Appin← Arnaud Lusamba

80'

Siebe Schrijvers↳ Arnaut Groeneveld

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ClubCercle

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots6

8Corners7

16Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots6

6On Target1

10Off Target5

Passing

64%Possession36%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0