Club Brugge KV 1–1 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Anderlecht

1/15/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 20Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Club Brugge KV57%

×Draw21%

Anderlecht23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.27

Club Brugge KV

2.12

Anderlecht

1.27

Club Brugge KV creates 67% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

2.36

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.36

Anderlecht

1.33

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

1.20

Anderlecht

1.87

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.40scores more

Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

77%

Club Brugge KV or Anderlecht

79%

Draw or Anderlecht

43%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

34%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

88%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

62%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

35%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

72%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

36%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

72%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.36 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.12

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

57%

level

21%

Anderlecht scores more

23%

Club Brugge KV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff