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Club America vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Club America
Club America
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
9/30/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Club America43%
×Draw27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club America
1.39
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.11

Club America creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Club America
1.53
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.29

allows per match

Club America
0.93
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.24

finishing

Club America-0.08on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.31scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Club America or draw
70%
Club America or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
73%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
57%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+
20%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals
75%
Club America 2+ goals
40%
Club America 3+ goals
16%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
67%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
30%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)
59%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.29 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club America scores more
43%
level
27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
30%

Club America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club America 0–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Club America 1-0 in Liga MX on September 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in D.F..