Club America 1–3 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

E. Aguilera 11' (pen)

Higor 82'

W. Corozo 42', 29'

11/28/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Club America43%

×Draw27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.07

Club America

1.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.07

Club America creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.53

creates per match

1.21

0.93

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Club America

1.53

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Club America

0.93

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club America or draw

70%

Club America or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

73%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

57%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

20%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

74%

Club America 2+ goals

38%

Club America 3+ goals

15%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

66%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

59%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club America scores more

43%

level

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

30%

Club America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

W. Corozo

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · F

8.6

Match Events

11'

E. AguileraPenalty

29'

W. Corozo↳ A. Mozo

42'

W. Corozo↳ A. Mozo

51'

S. Córdova← R. Sánchez

53'

Efraín Velarde

58'

Washington Corozo

63'

Higor← S. Saucedo

73'

M. Layún← J. Sánchez

73'

F. Viñas← M. Laínez

76'

J. Rodríguez← F. Álvarez

82'

Higor↳ A. Mozo

84'

Roger Martínez

87'

J. Galindo← L. López

87'

A. Álvarez← E. Velarde

89'

José Galindo

89'

N. Benedetti← Álvaro Fidalgo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubU.N.A.M.

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots12

6Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots12

3On Target4

7Off Target6

6Blocked2

8Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

375Total Passes314

299Accurate Passes229

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1