Club America 2–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

M. Laínez 90+8'

R. Sánchez 36'

10/3/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Club America43%

×Draw27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.07

Club America

1.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.07

Club America creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.53

creates per match

1.21

0.93

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Club America

1.53

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Club America

0.93

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Club America-0.08on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club America or draw

70%

Club America or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

73%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

57%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

20%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

74%

Club America 2+ goals

38%

Club America 3+ goals

15%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

66%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

59%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 11 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.53 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Club America defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club America scores more

43%

level

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

30%

Club America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Sánchez

Club America · M

8.5

Match Events

36'

R. Sánchez

43'

Pedro Aquino

44'

Arturo Ortiz

46'

C. Battocchio← W. Corozo

46'

E. Lira← L. López

53'

Higor Meritão

56'

Miguel Layún

56'

Miguel LayúnCard upgrade

60'

Juan Dinenno

64'

J. Sánchez← M. Layún

64'

M. Laínez← F. Viñas

68'

Diogo← Rogério

73'

M. Osuna← P. Aquino

73'

H. Martín← R. Martínez

74'

S. Saucedo← F. Álvarez

74'

E. Velarde← J. Rodríguez

83'

Henry MartínGoal confirmed

86'

J. Silva← S. Córdova

90+8'

M. Laínez↳ R. Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubU.N.A.M.

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots12

2Corners4

9Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots12

7On Target4

5Off Target8

4Blocked0

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

427Total Passes350

350Accurate Passes272

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1